Electoral Backlash against Climate Policy: A Natural Experiment on Accountability and Local Resistance to Public Policy

Event Date: 

Monday, November 17, 2014 - 4:00pm

Event Location: 

  • The Lane Room (Ellison 3824)
  • PS 595

Climate change requires societies to transform their energy system and polls consistently show majority support for climate policy and renewable energy. However, renewable energy technologies impose concentrated costs on local communities, who often resist projects. This spatial distribution of weak supporters and strong opponents mirrors opposition to other projects with diffuse public benefits and concentrated local costs. Do citizens punish governments at the ballot box for unwanted infrastructure in their backyard? I use a natural experiment in Ontario to investigate whether citizens living nearby wind projects voted against the incumbent, Liberal government because of its renewable energy policy. Using both fixed effects and instrumental variable estimators, I identify electoral losses for the incumbent party. Vote declines range from 4-10% with the effect persisting 3 km from wind turbines. I conclude that the spatial distribution of citizens' preferences can affect democratic accountability and create political barriers to addressing climate change.

PS 595 Credit