Early election forecast: Republicans could lose 38 seats and House majority

According to Professor Eric R.A.N. Smith, "The Democrats’ success in many recent state and local elections has raised their hopes of taking back the House or Senate in 2018. Fueling their optimism is the fact that President Trump remains distinctively unpopular for a president at this point in his first term — even though the economy continues to grow.

"What does this unusual combination — a good economy but an unpopular president — imply for the midterm elections? A simple, albeit early, forecast provides some good news for Democrats...." Professor Smith uses a forecasting model originally developed by political scientists Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice to provide an analysis of the potential 2018 House and Senate election results. The model is based on three factors: changes in real gross national product in the first and second quarters of the election year, the president’s approval rating in Gallup polls as of July of the election year, and whether it is a presidential or midterm year. Read Professor Smith's full Washington Post analysis and commentary here.